Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs +2.5 | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 98 h 3 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs. Game 102. 3:30 PM PST/6:30 PM EST. Hello friends, in all sincerity, I feel both of these teams deserve to be playing in the Super Bowl. As a matter fact, I predicted in the preseason, that these two teams would be playing for this season’s Lombardi Trophy (notice they named it after an Italian lol). Having said that, with all respect to the San Francisco 49ers and Brock Purdy, they just have proven that they could win at this level. I know Purdy was not there a few years back when the 49ers made it to the Super Bowl. But I still feel that they are a little bit short of what they need to do to win the Super Bowl. Whether you like it or not, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are the new Tom Brady and the Patriots. Not only have they gotten here quite a few times over the last several seasons, but they have prevailed on this platform. I have said it before and I will say it again, whatever you did prior to the Super Bowl does not matter. It is a moot point. Patrick Mahomes is a money player. He comes up big in big game situations. If you are worried about the hype about this team not being what they were, or that their defense can't stop the rush, just look at the Conference title game against a Ravens opponent, which happened to be the NFL’s top-rushing offense. They possess a defensive unit that has not allowed a single opponent to put up better than 27 points this season. My friends, after the Conference Title win, Patrick Mahomes was interviewed, and made it a point to say that the team was cognizant of being an underdog there. HMMM. How would you feel if you were the heavyweight champion of the world, and yet you faced the new kid on the block and were an underdog? Trust me when I tell you, Mahomes and the Chief will take care of business here and probably win this game outright. But I will take the points to err on the side of caution. Kansas City is the play plus the points. Thank you. Props As far as props go, we are all well-aware that not just in the Super Bowl (which was usually the only major prop contest of the year), PROPS have really exploded over recent years. Every single game in every sport, every day you'll find a list of prop bets available to you longer than your arm. Listen folks, when it comes to props, if it doesn't give you value, step away. If you just want to bet some props for poops and giggles, then bet 20 props for 10 bucks a game, and have all the poops and giggles you can possibly handle. However, if you're serious about making money, be disciplined. Let me tell you what I mean by that: There is a prop out there about Patrick Mahomes throwing a touchdown; Will Mahomes throw a TD? Do I think he's gonna’ throw a TD? I think he's gonna’ throw several TD’s. But the odds on him to throw a TD, ranges from -450 to -500. There is no value in it my friends. There is no value at all. Listen, God forbid on the first series of the game he gets hurt and he is sidelined, then you are screwed. And to be honest with you, unless you're betting hundreds of thousands of dollars, there's no significant profit in it anyway. Let it go. Below are some props that I really feel strongly about. They are all props that I feel give us value. PROPS These are the props I feel are most “valuable” and the ones with a star are stronger, two stars are really strong as far as “value” goes. Will the game be tied after 0-0? YES +145 * Shortest FG of game 27.5 yards. UNDER -110 * Will there be a ST or Defensive TD? Yes +250 * Longest rush by Purdy 6.5 yards. OVER Even Money Total TD passes by Purdy 1.5. OVER -110 Total receiving yards by Kittle 49.5. OVER -110 * Will Kittle score a TD? Yes +170 Total TD passes by Mahomes 2. OVER +170 Will Pacheco score a TD? Yes +120 10)Total receiving yards by Kelce 72.5. OVER -110 * 11)Longest reception by Kelce 21.5 yards. OVER Even Money 12)Total receptions by Kelce 6.5. OVER -110 ** 13) Will Kelce score a TD? YES +105 ** |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers -7 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 32 m | Show | |
San Francisco 49ers. NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME WINNER. Game 322. 3:30 PM PST/6:30 PM EST. My friends, I'm gonna’ keep this analysis a lot like me, very short and extremely sweet (LOL). I will admit that I drank the blue Kool-Aid several times this season winning a few and dropping a few with the Lions. This is a very good team. Don't get me wrong. They are certainly deserving of their postseason spot. But could we possibly be jumping the gun here and maybe more wanting them to wins than thinking they're going to win? Let's start with the elephant in the room. As of posting this play, the status of Deebo Samuel is uncertain. However, please remember that that situation is already included in the current number. In my opinion, if he plays this number should be closer to -9 or -10. And that's only so they don't get overwhelmed with underdog bets. If he plays, great. If he does not, it will not significantly affect the offense. This squad is loaded with playmakers. They've got an arsenal of receivers, one of the best tight ends in the game, and let's not forget in the backfield, one of the most valuable players to their team playing today. I feel Brock Purdy and the fourth-ranked passing offense of San Francisco will totally pick apart the 27th ranked pass defense of Detroit. Let's be honest guys, just about every opponent the Lions have faced since early-November, has put a lot of points up on them. While they own solid, stop-unit against the rush, they haven't faced too many offenses that is as loaded at every key position as they're going to face here this weekend. A big part of their success offensively, is there ground game. Once again, they're lining up against the second-ranked run defense in the league. As far as the passing game goes, there is no question. Jared Goff has put up some very impressive numbers. However, look at their schedule and you will see that when the quarterback has faced defenses that are strong in the middle of the field with good linebacking corps, he has put up his five worst performances this season. I'm happy for the Detroit fans. They certainly deserve some excitement. But maybe they're a little overexcited and come in here overconfident. One more item my friends, big games usually come down to big plays by quarterbacks and mistakes. Brock Purdy makes very few mistakes. As a matter fact, the offense has done very well not turning the ball over too often. The same can't be said for Detroit. They have committed 23 turnovers on offense this season. That does not bode well when you're going up against the team that's already snagged 27 takeaways. Take the 49ers. Thank you. |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 142 h 29 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs. AFC Championship Game Winner. Game 319. 12:00 PM PST/3:00 PM EST. There is no question these are the two best teams in the AFC. However, you cannot ignore the success of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the postseason. As far as Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are concerned, they are certainly a great squad. But let's be honest, when it comes down to the playoffs, Jackson and the team overall, falls a bit short. Trust me when I tell you, Kansas City did what they needed to do on the road in Buffalo last Sunday. Although Baltimore did the same at home against Houston, there is a big difference in the level of opponent from last week to this week for them. The Chiefs are clicking at the right time. They overcame injury issues mid-season. But finished strong, and won and covered both postseason contests. The Ravens have been solid all season long. But at times their defense has shown cracks. I know this somewhat contradicts their top-ranked scoring defense. But hear me out. At times, they showed vulnerability. You cannot say the same for the Kansas City stop-unit. Yes, I am aware that Baltimore's "D" allows just 16.5 points per game, while the KC "D" allows 17.3 points per game. But Kansas City has not allowed a single opponent this season to reach 30 points in scoring (27). Offensively, the Ravens put up more points statistically. They top the league on the ground. But leave a lot to be desired in the air. This is going to be an issue because they are facing one of the toughest pass defenses in football. Kansas City will completely shut down the passing game of Baltimore and allow their defense to key on the running game. The Chiefs have proven they could win a tough game on the road against a solid opponent in the playoffs. They showed us this last week. I also think they are better coached, more disciplined, and a lot more experienced in the postseason. Take Kansas City. Thank you. |
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01-21-24 | Chiefs +3 v. Bills | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 79 h 49 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs. AFC JANUARY GAME OF THE MONTH. Game 317. 3:30 PM PST/6:30 PM EST. Two of the most acclaimed quarterbacks in the NFL are going to be meeting one another for the seventh time. Kansas City and Buffalo have each won three of the previous matchups. However, Patrick Mahomes has bested Josh Allen when it counts, taking both playoff meetings. I don't want to upset any Bill fans. But I've been doing this for a long time, and I want you to know there are fun players, and there are money players. Josh Allen is the first. He puts up amazing numbers every year. But when it comes down to games he must win, let's be honest, the mistakes pile up and the Bills lose. On the other hand, Patrick Mahomes is a money player. He wins when games are on the line. He wins when crunch time is upon him. And he wins in the postseason. No matter what you do during the regular season, when it comes to the playoffs, it is a whole different monster. I hear people talking about the weather up in Buffalo. But Kansas City is no stranger to cold weather. I know the Bills closed out the regular season one of the hottest teams in the league. And that did include a three-point outright win on the road at Arrowhead in early-December. But giving Mahomes and the experienced, Kansas City Chiefs points in January is a big mistake. Not only will Mahomes be a major difference in this contest. But the consistently solid defense of the Chiefs will be a major factor as well. This is a squad that has yielded a mere, 17.3 points per game, and ranks fourth against the pass. They are going to get a lot of pressure on Allen and force him to make mistakes. Take Kansas City. Thank you. |
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01-15-24 | Eagles v. Bucs +3 | 9-32 | Win | 100 | 56 h 17 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers. WC CONSENSUS GAME OF THE MONTH. Game 152. 5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST. You would think that this time of year in the playoffs Philadelphia would be the play. I'm here to tell you they are a go against. This is not the same Eagles team we have come to watch over the last several seasons. Let's face it, they backed into the postseason, losing five of their last six straight up, and failing to cover seven straight and eight of their last 10. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have been a surprise, earning a postseason spot, winning five of their last six SU, and covering seven of their last 10 ATS. Momentum plays a big part come the postseason, my friends. And to be honest with you, Tampa Bay wasn't expected to be here. And a team with nothing to lose is very dangerous. The Philadelphia defense has gotten shredded for over 25.2 points per game this season, ranking 30th in points allowed. While their offense still has a lot of weapons, they also make a lot of mistakes, turning the ball over 28 times this season. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has a solid run defense, ranking fifth in the league, which can and will neutralize the rushing attack of Philadelphia here. They will cause a lot of three-and-outs thus putting the Eagles “D” on the field a little more than they would like to be. I believe 4000-yard passer, Baker Mayfield (check status) will have a very good day here lining up against the 31st ranked pass defense of Philly. I expect him to play, folks. Take the Buccaneers. Thank you. |
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01-14-24 | Packers v. Cowboys -7 | 48-32 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 37 m | Show | |
Dallas Cowboys. Sunday WILD CARD BEST BET. Game 148. 1:30 PM PST/4:30 PM EST. I am aware the Packers have won covered the last four meetings with the Cowboys, going back to 2017. I am also aware they have won three in a row straight up, covering their last two, coming into the playoffs. But if there is any team in the NFL that has a significant home-field advantage, it is Dallas. They are on a 16-game win streak at AT&T Stadium. They are a perfect, 8-0 on their own field this season. They also know they can't let their guard down here in this round. You know this stadium is going to be loud and crazy as the loyal fans of the Cowboys are going to watch their first home playoff game since 2018. Please remember that although Green Bay is a good team. They haven't been consistently good this season. They are also at a big disadvantage as the Dallas Cowboys head coach knows the Green Bay Packers team inside and out. On both sides of the ball, the home team here is one of the most complete in all of the NFL. I see their rushing attack moving the chains and allowing Dak Prescott to open up the passing attack. I don't see the Cowboys letting their foot off the gas here. They will leave no doubt. Take Dallas. Thank you. |
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01-13-24 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -4.5 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show | |
Kansas City Chiefs. Saturday Wild Card Best Bet. Game 144. 5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST. When this line first came out, I will admit I leaned towards the ‘dog. However, looking at the injury report and recent performances has compelled me to take the favorite here. The story of the Dolphins this season was a very good story. However, they have dropped three of their last five games, both straight up and against the spread, including their last two coming into the postseason. Momentum means a lot this time of year, my friends. Their once once powerful offense has tallied a total of 33 points the last two outings, while their defense has gotten flattened for 77 points. Something you may find very strange is this team has only averaged a mere 19 points per game against the six fellow playoff teams they faced this season. By the way, they lost five of those games. What does that tell you? It tells you this team can put up some numbers, but when they have to step up in class, they fall short. Kansas City was struggling for sure. But they still made it to 11 wins this season. Their offense started to step up a bit. And it's hard to go against Patrick Mahomes at home in the month of January. But I believe it will be their defense that will shine in this matchup. You may not realize this, but this defense ranks second in the league in point scored, allowing only 17.3 points per game. I know the Miami offense tops the NFL in passing yards per game. However, they are going up against one of the best pass defenses in football. Oh, by the way, as I mentioned earlier, the Dolphins are going to be without quite a few starters on the defensive side of the ball. Take the Chiefs. Thank you. |
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01-08-24 | Washington v. Michigan -4 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 50 h 54 m | Show |
Michigan Wolverines. National Championship Game Winner. Game 288. 4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST. Just like me, I'm going to keep this game analysis very short and extremely sweet (lol). There is no question that both Washington and Michigan deserve to be here. Both completed the entire campaign perfect, at 14-0. Both played and beat the best in their conference title games. I mean the Huskies took down the Longhorns, 37-31 as a 3.5-point underdog. The Wolverines came on strong at the end of the fourth quarter, and then won in overtime against, what many people thought was the best team in the College Football Playoff, the Crimson Tide. There are a few major disparities here. With all respect to Washington, and their top-ranked, passing offense, they have not faced a defense as complete as the one they are lining up against here. Not only is Michigan the most ferocious and well-balanced defense they will have faced this season, but they are equally strong in the air and on the ground. The Wolverines stop-unit leads the nation, allowing just 9.5 points per game, ranks second against the pass, six against the rush, second in total yards allowed, and sixth in takeaways. On the opposite side of the ball, let's face it, the Huskies give up a lot of points. That rank 50th nationally, allowing 23.6 points per game. That's bad enough. But the Wolverines offense is so well-balanced and so dangerous it is impossible to shut them down. They have a smart quarterback at the helm. And I believe that's where the big contrast will be. The Huskies rank 122nd, defensively against the pass. Quarterback, JJ McCarthy is smart, capable, and must be salivating, knowing he's going to pass the ball at will here. Remember, if the Huskies key on the pass attack of the Wolverines, Michigan could then fall back on the rushing attack of Blake Corum. A lot of talk is that head coach, Jim Harbaugh is going to be departing for the NFL after this game. Now these are just rumors. But there's a lot of talk surrounding his future just might just be in Las Vegas. And if that does happen, he also just might be taking his starting quarterback with him. He will want to leave Ann Arbor with a National Title. Take Michigan. Thank you. |
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01-07-24 | Vikings v. Lions -3.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
Detroit Lions. NFC North Game of the Month. Game 478. 10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST. Detroit currently has the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoff picture. But does have an opportunity to step up to the No. 2 seed with a win here and some help. The Vikings playoffs chances are basically hanging on by a thread. Now normally I would be a little apprehensive about a game like this. But Detroit head coach, Dan Campbell announced he will be playing quarterback, Jared Goff, and his starters in this contest. For how long, who knows. But they want this win. They lost a heartbreaker last week on the road to Dallas by one-point. That ended a two game straight up win streak. But did extend their ATS cover streak to three consecutive games. They don't want to go into the postseason on a two-game slide. They need a big ego boost here. And what better team to face than their hated division rival, which happens to be on a three-game slide straight up themselves. As a matter fact, they've lost five of their last six straight up. failing to cover five straight. One thing for sure, with the announcement that Nick Mullins will start at quarterback for the Vikings, you can expect the Lions to throw a lot of different schemes at him with their very talented defense. On the flipside of the ball, Goff is going to have his best performance of the regular season because most of Minnesota secondary is either banged-up or out here. FYI, Detroit has taken three of the last four meetings in this series straight up and six in a row against the number. Take the Lions. Thank you. |
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01-07-24 | Bucs -4 v. Panthers | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers. NFC South Game of the Month. Game 479. 10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST. Tampa Bay controls their destiny here folks. In other words, they win and they are in the playoffs. Let's throw away the fact the Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS as a visitor this season. Let's throw away the fact Carolina has been eliminated from any postseason chances quite a while back. Throw away the fact that this home team is just 2-14, which is the worst record in the NFL this season. And throw away the fact that Carolina is also just 1-4 SU against division opponents this season. The Buccaneers are a smart, well-coached, disciplined squad, certainly outclassing their opponent in this matchup. They were riding a four-game straight up win streak prior to last weeks, 23-13 loss on the road at the Saints. But did extend their ATS cover streak to three in a row. They have dominated this division rivalry, taking eight of the last 10 meetings, straight up, and covering seven of those 10 matchups. The Panthers aren't going to jeopardize any of their significant starters here. And let's face it, even if they were going to play all out, they just don't have the personnel to contend here. If they did, they wouldn't have finished this season with the worst record in football. Take the Buccaneers. Thank you. |
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01-01-24 | Alabama +2 v. Michigan | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 237 h 15 m | Show |
Alabama Crimson Tide. Game 279. 2:00 PM PST/5:00 PM EST. With all respect to Michigan and their 13-0 season, I think we can all agree, they didn't play the toughest schedule out there. And as the season, progressed, and they did play some better teams, they had struggled a bit. Penn State, Maryland, and Ohio State all gave them a tough time. But make no mistake of it, they are going up against the toughest defense they will have had to face this season. Alabama not only owns a stop-unit that allows just 18.4 points per game, but they have gone up against and completely shut down quite a few solid offenses. I think we can all agree that neither in the air or on the ground, the wolverines Are explosive. It is their defense that allows their offense success. I believe their passing a game will be in real trouble here as the Crimson Tides pass defense has improved with each game this season, and is now in my opinion, one of the best in the nation. Offensively, Alabama's quarterback, Jalen Milroe has matured better than any other player in the country. Let's be honest, my friends, when this team dropped their second game of the season in early-September, at the hands of Texas, Nick Saban read them the riot act, and they got on course and were on a mission. They have not dropped the game since, annihilating all opponents. Not only that, but they've covered eight of 10 since that loss. Sabin and his coaching staff have had more than enough time to prepare for the Michigan team. There is no way they're going to drop this game as they want nothing less than another national title. The only thing standing is this week’s opponent. There is one more thing that I think is very significant here, my friends. And that is all the off the field distractions the Wolverines are going through. The entire football team, their athletic department, their head coach, coaching staff, etc. There is a lot of distractions. The rumor has it, Jim Harbaugh, no matter what happens, this season, is going to go onto the NFL. There is also some whispers that he will be in a position to also take his quarterback with him. Trust me when I tell you this is a distraction. The Crimson Tide have no distractions. They have one thing on their minds and that is a national title. They scratched and clawed to get here. I believe Michigan will come in a bit overconfident and get taken by surprise. Take Alabama. Thank you. |
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01-01-24 | Iowa v. Tennessee -5.5 | 0-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
Tennessee Volunteers. Game 276. 10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST. I am well aware Tennessee lost their starting quarterback, Joe Milton III, who opted out of the Citrus Bowl. We all know how good the Iowa defense has performed once again this season. However, the offense is absolutely atrocious. They can't put up too many points on any opponent. The one thing Tennessee has, is depth. They have enough talent to not just get a win here, but get the cover for us. Take the Volunteers. Thank you. |
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01-01-24 | Liberty v. Oregon -18 | 6-45 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Oregon Ducks. Game 278. 10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST. In all sincerity, the Oregon Ducks were just a few points away from a College Football Playoff invitation. Losing to the Washington Huskies in the Pac-12 Championship game by three-points, dropped this team to the No. 5 spot and a New Year's Day Bowl. There is nothing this team wants more than to exact a little revenge and show the nation that they deserved to be in the CFP. Bo Nix, who is without question one of the greatest college football quarterbacks of all time, will be playing in his last game at the collegiate level. Trust me when I tell you he wants to go out on a high note. They don't just want to win this game; they want to crush the Liberty Flames. Speaking of which, the Flames finished the campaign off at 13-0 and have some impressive numbers on both sides of the ball. They rank fifth in the nation in scoring and 46th on defense. That's all well and good. However, they haven't faced a top tier team. For goodness sake, they haven’t even faced a medium tier team. While there is a lot of talent on this squad, I just don't see them competing with the Mighty Ducks (LOL). What better way to go out for Nix and the Oregon team, then to annihilate the Flames, giving them their first loss of the season and giving the pollsters something to remember. Take Oregon. Thank you. |